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World bank cuts economic forecasts? Japan’s  survey showed less pessimism at big Japanese manufacturing firms in the three months to June. Meanwhile German business sentiment rose to a seven-month high in June although analysts said plenty of risks remained given that expectations fueled the rise in sentiment.

Despite initial signs of a weakening in the pace of economic decline, policymakers must remain alert, European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet said. “While there are first signs that the pace of economic weakening is decelerating, we must remain alert. We are in uncharted waters, and there are still risks of a sudden emergence of unexpected financial turbulence,” he said.

Trichet’s caution chimed with that of Angel Gurria, the head of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development. “We see a very difficult 2009, with negative growth in the OECD area. Unemployment problems are going to continue to linger,” he told Reuters television in an interview on the sidelines of a conference in Paris.

Adding to those wary comments, the World Bank said prospects for the global economy remain “unusually uncertain” as it cut 2009 growth forecasts for most economies.

Governments around the world have borrowed hundreds of billions of dollars to fight the worst economic crisis in decades, providing incentives for businesses and consumers to spend and embarking on big infrastructure programs to create jobs and stimulate activity.

They should stick to spending programs to reignite growth because their economies are still weak in spite of signs that the worst of the crisis may be past, World Bank Chief Economist Justin Lin said in an interview with Reuters. Lin also said he was concerned about rising borrowing costs and weak external financing conditions for the emerging economies of Europe and Central Asia.

Like the ECB, the U.S. Federal Reserve has cut interest rates to record low levels and used unorthodox means to pump more money into the system.

The Fed’s interest rate setting committee meets on Tuesday and Wednesday and economists polled by Reuters see no chance that the Fed will raise its benchmark short-term interest rate from the current level near zero. The Fed is also seen unlikely to ramp up its purchases of U.S. government and mortgage-linked debt as investor focus shifts to inflation on evidence that the economy is stabilizing.

The key challenge facing India’s new ruling coalition is to maintain a strong growth rate, which has suffered in the face of the global financial crisis. “We have to observe that uncertainty in the world is still very high and we cannot ignore the fact that we are more integrated to the world than we used to be,” Rakesh Mohan told reporters.

The Central Bank expects the economy to expand about 6 percent in the current fiscal year ending March 31, 2010, lower from the previous year’s estimate of 6.5-6.7 percent. In the previous three fiscal years, Asia’s third largest economy grew at 9 percent or more. Mohan said while India’s economy would continue to do well, expectations have to be realistic as the country cannot decouple with the rest of the world.

The government and the central bank have taken aggressive steps to revive the economy after the collapse of Lehman Brothers last year hurt sentiment across the world and depressed demand.